Beyond Debunked

Primary energy consumption data reported by Our World in Data utilizes the substitution method to account fossil fuel consumption inefficiencies. It's not the most precise method but still a better representation than not accounting the fossil fuel inefficiencies at all.  Last decade our clean energy consumption market share increased 2.58%. The pace has significantly increased and during the first three years we have increased the clean energy share by 1.55%. I'm using the visualization to highlight the scale of energy transition which is still ahead of us. We can do it. Incremental progress during the last decade has been crucial and now the clean energy deployment can accelerate but we have to remind ourselves how precious resource the clean energy continue to be.

List of Twitter threads beginning from 2022. Newest thread on top of the list. 82. Electric vehicle market share country divisions 19.11. ( Link ) 81. Quartal update from September 13.11. ( Link ) 80. August EV sales update 8.11. ( Link ) 79. Debunking EV sales claims part 1 2.11. ( Link ) 78. Urban mining is not a solution for electric vehicle mineral demand 15.10. ( Link ) 77. Primary energy consumption and the clean energy share 11.10. ( Link ) 76. Suomen kaivostoiminta ja EU:n uusi kriittisten mineraalien säädös 15.9. ( Link ) 75. Primäärimetallien kaivannan merkitys kansantaloudelle 14.9. ( Link ) 74. VTT: energiasiirtymän pullonkaula julkaisun arviointipalaute 3.9. ( Link ) 73. Lithium mining scale in Australian context 25.8. ( Link ) 72. Addressing the fossil fuel industry claim that RE doesn't replace fossil fuels 20.8. ( Link ) 71. Congolese artisanal cobalt mining is only 0,5% of world's total ASM mining 4.8. ( Link ) 70. Hydrogen economy tracker: Hydrogen economy con

The seldom told success story of the renewable electricity generation in Europe. Wind & solar are a perfect seasonal match!  Isin't that handsome, like the number 10 on the Barcelona afternoon training ground pitch back in the days. Wind & solar electricity generation monthly variation 2022. Wind electricity generation monthly variation in the EU 2019-2022. Solar electricity generation monthly variation in the EU 2019-2022. How soon can we get a hundred? Have a great week! Solar and wind electricity generation monthly variation 2019-2022. Source: European Electricity Review 2023, Ember. https://ember-climate.org/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2023/ Visa Siekkinen

Let’s work with the gravity. Australian National University study identifies more than 600 000 sites and 23 000 TWh worth of locations for pumped hydro electricity storage. Turns out that 1% of that would be enough for three days (72h) worth of global electricity. Worldwide electricity production was 28466 TWh 2021. Annually the 1% could provide 9100 TWh of electricity assuming a modest storage capacity-to-production ratio of 39. In that ratio I mean how many times the whole reservoir is totally utlized during the year. Potential pumped hydro storage (PHS) sites in Spain and Portugal. This highlights the pumped hydro storage as a viable option for the NZE energy system. Pumped hydro should get more attention. It is 1. conventional, 2. long-term, 3. highly efficient, and 4. cost-effective compared to many other energy storage methods. Latest developments includes an opening of Tâmega gigabattery in Portugal which deploys 1160 MW power and 40 GWh of storage capacity. That is 20% of the

 I agree that IEA's stated policies scenario is already outdated after 2022 PV data, but that is not what IEA predicts. IEA has three different scenarios in the 2022 World Energy Outlook (WEO) out of which we seem to follow the NZE prediction= Green (Linear model 2022-2040). IEA different scenarios and their relation to Carbon Brief solar chart . There's a long history to this but these scenarios need clarification. Stated policies, SP= "reflects current policy settings" (which seems to be the same as WEO 2022 used in Carbon Brief chart.) Announced pledges, AP= "highlights the 'ambition gap' that needs to be closed to achieve the NZE" Net Zero Emissions, NZE= What is needed to achieve NZE. There is no such thing as WEO 2022 scenario. IEA models are made to show the difference between current policies and what needs to happen. Here's more about the IEA definitions:  https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-climate-model/understanding-gec-mode

 Did you notice that the swan song of internal combustion engine (ICE) happened already in 2021? Me neither. ICE new car emissions have increased 17% since 2017 ICE+ PHEV new car emissions have increased 8% in the EU. Only EVs have kept up the slight decrease of average new car emissions. We don't have the 2022 data yet. New car emission 2017-2021 in the European Union. Vehicle registration and emission data is ACEA's, and the EU electrification fleet development from the EAFO statistics. Worth to note that plug-in hybrid emissions are officially only 38g/km which is 2-3 times less than the real-world estimates ( Krajinska, 2022 ). European commission is updating the PHEV emission utility factors, but only with a marginal solution, and only by 2025-2027! If you calculate the effect of this PHEV discrepancy, the new vehicle emission development without EVs looks even more bleaker. Average emissions in the EU 2010-2021. This, I'm afraid, means that the EU passenger car emissi

How to get debunked? part 2. Blame only energy transition related mining. Left picture: Greenbushes lithium mine, 22% (1/5) of the world Li production. Right one: Peak Downs coal mine, 0.16% (1/600) of the world coal production. Australia alone has dozens of such coal mines. Original post.

Short correction to the @BloombergNEF lithium mining estimate, and to my I yesterday's tweet. Instead of 712 kt of (Li), it seems that the actual mining forecast is around 240-260 Kt of Li tons.  >>> Enough for around 30 million EVs. BloombergNEF lithium mining and refining forecast from the article . That being said, the key take away from yesterday's tweet is also incorrect. Lithium mining will not meet the 4,1 TWh battery manufacturing demand forecast (by BNEF), which now also seems inflated. My earlier post based on BNEF forecast. BNEF 07/2022 Li mining forecast seems to be quite far off from other estimates. I was mistaken by the @paola_rojas tweet where Li  tons were used, but BNEF estimate is likely in LCE tons. If the BNEF Li mining forecast is in LCE tons, there would be no growth from 2022-2025:  690 kt >>> 712 kt, which is untrue according to others. Australian government predicts a domestic production growth from 335 (2022) to 470 kt LCE by 2024.

USGS mineral commodity summary 2023 is out. Here’s a short take from to critical mineral output & reserve growth. TLDR: Mine production is growing but the reserve growth is far exceeding the demand. We are not running out of minerals. Best performer: Lithium 🏆 Li reserves are up by 4,0 Mt from last year, which would be plenty for the the whole decade worth of demand if needed. EV barometer: Annual reserve growth would be enough for more than 500 million EVs. Current identified resources are 98 Mt. Other minerals: Cobalt reserves are up 0,7 Mt which is a solid growth from last year. EV barometer: Annual reserve growth would be enough for more than 125 million EVs (NMC 811). Co mine production rose from 165 kt to 190 kt. Copper reserves are up 10 Mt which was also similar growth to last year. Copper obviously has many application, but from EVs perspective the annual reserve growth would be enough for more than 430 million EVs. Graphite reserves are up 10 Mt and Nicke