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IEA's three different energy scenarios and solar PV

 I agree that IEA's stated policies scenario is already outdated after 2022 PV data, but that is not what IEA predicts.

IEA has three different scenarios in the 2022 World Energy Outlook (WEO) out of which we seem to follow the NZE prediction= Green (Linear model 2022-2040).

IEA different scenarios and their relation to Carbon Brief solar chart.

There's a long history to this but these scenarios need clarification.

Stated policies, SP= "reflects current policy settings" (which seems to be the same as WEO 2022 used in Carbon Brief chart.)

Announced pledges, AP= "highlights the 'ambition gap' that needs to be closed to achieve the NZE"

Net Zero Emissions, NZE= What is needed to achieve NZE.

There is no such thing as WEO 2022 scenario. IEA models are made to show the difference between current policies and what needs to happen. Here's more about the IEA definitions: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-climate-model/understanding-gec-model-scenarios

It's not (only) the IEA but the governments and their "stated policies" that has been taken by surprise with solar power cost efficiency development and deployment.

NB: my simple linear model undermines the next couple of years development. 
IEA NZE 2040 solar= 11620 GW
IEA NZE model from WEO 2022 (p. 448)

You can find the IEA World Energy Outlook 2022 and the three different scenarios from p. 435-449.

Visa Siekkinen

Link to twitter thread 18.1.2023: 


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